Sydney walking a finals tightrope

By David Davutovic

December 04, 2007

SYDNEY FC coach John Kosmina has set his players a minimum target of 12 points from their remaining seven matches to seal an elusive finals spot.


And their hopes in Friday's clash against Newcastle Jets have been boosted with marquee player Juninho declared fit to play.

Having taken the reins after round nine when FC were on nine points, Kosmina challenged the players to reach 30 points by the final round.

While that tally would have guaranteed a finals berth last season, the same can't be said of season one. Kosmina conceded that Sydney FC may need to secure as many as 14 of a possible 21 points to qualify for their third successive finals series.

"We need another 12 to 14 points out of seven games, there's 21 points available," he said.

"We said we needed 21 points at the start, to get to 30. But we need as many as we can and it depends on how the other teams go."

Last season, Newcastle Jets claimed third spot with 30 points although Sydney FC, who finished fourth on 29, were deducted three points for rorting the salary cap.

But 30 points would not have been enough in the inaugural season - Perth finished fifth on 29 points, behind fourth-place Newcastle on 31.

They face a gruelling month ahead, with fixtures against the resurgent Perth (home), Central Coast (away) and Adelaide (away) after the Jets clash.

"Fortunately we're playing all the teams above us, so the ball is in our court," Kosmina said.

Juninho, who was suffering from the effects of the harsh challenge in the LA Galaxy match and would have missed last Saturday's match, trained yesterday.

"He did a bit of running so there's a good chance he will be available," Kosmina said.

So who will make it?

We will not make any predictions here, just present a few facts and figures, so you can make up your own mind.

Current Standings

At this stage the only team that you could say with any sort of certainty that will make the finals is Central Coast Mariners. With a game in hand and four points clear of second place Queensland Roar, the Mariners are likely to need just two more wins to secure at the very least a top-four berth. The Roar’s excellent run of form ended last week with a home loss to Newcastle Jets, which has meant the gap has closed between them two and also Adelaide United (level with Newcastle) to just one point. These four teams make up the top four and you would have to say they might take some catching from those outside the four.

Four points from the top four is Sydney FC, who is unbeaten since John Kosmina took over a month ago. With a game in hand they would fancy their chances of making the top four. Defending champions Melbourne Victory are finding the going tough at the present moment and they sit six points adrift of the top four, but with only six matches remaining. At the bottom are Perth Glory and Wellington Phoenix, some nine points adrift of fourth-placed Newcastle Jets and walking the tightrope so to speak.

What’s the cut-off point?

Taking into account the tables from the previous seasons cut off points, it looks like 30-31 points will be the figure required to make the finals, although as we know each season is different and we are talking only two seasons of history. In the 2005-06 season, Newcastle Jets claimed fourth spot with 31 points, while last season, Sydney FC was in fourth on 29 points (albeit ahead of Queensland on goal difference), but that did include a 3-point deduction for a regulation breach. So taking that into account, 3rd placed Newcastle finished on 30 points and that is the mark we will use for this particular exercise. In each season the fifth placed-team finished on 29 points, so that seems to be the number you at least need to get past to have any chance of making the finals.

What could affect this cut-off point?

Probably the biggest difference between this season and the first two seasons, is that no team is running away with the competition. In season one, Adelaide United got 11 points clear by Round 18 as they kept picking up the wins, while by Round 13 in season two, Melbourne Victory were so far in front that they were already celebrating winning the Premiership. This season however, while Central Coast Mariners is a comfortable four points clear, but still some way behind where Adelaide and Melbourne at the same time in season 1 and 2 respectively. The other major factor has been the amount of drawn games so far this season, which indicates a lot closer competition than in the two previous seasons. So far there have been 23 draws this season, already more than in the entire seasons for season one and two.

Sydney FC – 18 points (5th)

Games Remaining: 7
Newcastle Jets (H), Perth Glory (H), Central Coast (A), Adelaide United (A), Wellington Phoenix (A), Queensland Roar (A), Melbourne Victory (H)
Form: DDDWW

Unbeaten since John Kosmina took over from Branko Culina prior to Round 10, Sydney cannot be discounted and with a game in hand, will be confident of making the top four. Inconsistency and injuries plagued the team during Culina’s reign, where they only won twice and lost four games. Kosmina, who enjoyed a great deal of success with Adelaide United, also benefitted from the arrival of Michael Bridges, on loan from Hull City, and he has certainly added a new attacking dimension to Sydney’s play. The key for Sydney is marquee player Juninho, whose early season injury, has restricted him to bit-part roles. When on the field, there is no player in the competition that can create openings for his team like he can and Kosmina he can overcome a knock to his knee he received against LA Galaxy, where he was a standout in the first half. While many are saying the washed out game against Central Coast gives them an advantage over their top four rivals, that might not necessarily be the case. The players would have welcomed the weekend off before Christmas, but now they have to play the league leaders, which will start a run of four consecutive away games. So its essential that they win both home games in the next two weeks against the Jets and Glory, otherwise their season could be over and the mouth-watering final game against Melbourne Victory at home, could be all for nothing.

Kosmina: We need three pointsThursday, 6 December 2007
Sydney FC Coach John Kosmina believes his side needs to pick up maximum points from its three remaining home games to have the best chance of making the Hyundai A-League semi final series.

Kosmina was talking before Friday night’s crucial clash with the Newcastle Jets at the Sydney Football Stadium where Sydney FC faces the 4th-placed Jets.

With seven matches remaining, Sydney FC still has to play every other team in the A-League with home games against Newcastle, Perth Glory (next Saturday night) and Melbourne Victory (January).

“Nothing is cut and dried as to what we need and what we don’t need, there are no boundaries, but to give ourselves the best possible chance we need maximum points from our home games, starting with Newcastle on Friday,” Kosmina said.

“We could end up winning all four games on the road and only winning one at home and that could be enough but realistically the best chance to pick up points is at home so we need to get them in the bank.

“With seven games to go we still have to play everyone which means we can still take points off all of those teams we need to catch.”

The first task in the run to the finish line is the Jets on Friday, in a match that is shaping as a season-defining encounter.

Sydney FC is in 5th place on the ladder and trail the 4th-placed Jets by four points, with a game in hand. Victory will have Sydney FC well placed but a loss means they will have to climb a mountain to qualify.

Sydney FC will have to defeat the Jets without the services of marquee player Juninho, who has been ruled out for two weeks after further scans revealed he has a chipped bone in the top of his shin from the LA Galaxy game.

The midfielder suffered the damage from a tackle that forced him from the field and will miss Friday’s clash with Newcastle, next Saturday’s home game against Perth Glory and the rescheduled round 15 game against the Mariners.

“It is unfortunate that Junny (Juninho) is out following the Galaxy game but that’s football,” Kosmina said. “There’s no point worrying about it. We have a job to do going forward and that’s what we will be focusing on.”

Sydney FC squad: 1.Clint BOLTON (gk), 2.Iain FYFE, 3.Nikolas TSATTALIOS, 4.Mark RUDAN, (captain), 6. Tony POPOVICH, 7.Robbie MIDDLEBY, 8.Ruben ZADKOVICH, 9.David ZDRILIC, 10.Steve CORICA, 11.Brendon SANTALAB, 13.Ben VIDAIC, 14.Alex BROSQUE, 15. Terry McFLYNN, 16.Mark MILLIGAN, 20.Ivan NECEVSKI (gk), 21.Adam BIDDLE, 23.Ufuk TALAY, 28.Michael BRIDGES.*three to be omitted

Unavailable: Patrick (knee - 1-2 weeks), Jacob Timpano (thigh - 3 weeks), Adam Casey (leg - 7-9 weeks), Michael Enfield (knee - 6 months).

MATCH DETAILS
Sydney FC v Newcastle Jets
Sydney Football Stadium
Friday 7 December
8.00pm